By Bill McKibben
Caution: It is vitally important not to make connections. When you see pictures of rubble like this week's shots from Joplin, Missouri, you should not ask yourself: I wonder if this is somehow related to the huge tornado outbreak three weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, or the enormous outbreak a couple of weeks before that — together they comprised the most active April for tornadoes in our history. But that doesn't mean a thing.
It is far better to think of these as isolated, unpredictable, discrete events. It is not advised to try and connect them in your mind with, say, the fires now burning across Texas — fires that have burned more of America by this date than any year in our history. Texas, and adjoining parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, are drier than they've ever been — the drought is worse than the Dust Bowl. But do not wonder if it's somehow connected.
If you did wonder, you'd have to also wonder about whether this year's record snowfalls and rainfalls across the Midwest — resulting in record flooding across the Mississippi — could somehow be related. And if you did that, then you might find your thoughts wandering to, oh, global warming. To the fact that climatologists have been predicting for years that as we flood the atmosphere with carbon we will also start both drying and flooding the planet, since warm air holds more water vapor than cold.
It's far smarter to repeat to yourself, over and over, the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods — that's the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don't let yourself wonder why all these records are happening at once: why we've had unprecedented megafloods from Australia to Pakistan in the last year. Why it's just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years. Focus on the immediate casualties, watch the videotape from the store cameras as the shelves are blown over. Look at the anchorman up to the chest of his waders in the rising river.
Because if you asked yourself what it meant that the Amazon has just come through its second hundred-year-drought in the last four years, or that the pine forests across the western part of this continent have been obliterated by a beetle in the last decade — well, you might have to ask other questions. Like, should President Obama really just have opened a huge swath of Wyoming to new coal-mining? Should Secretary of State this summer sign a permit allowing a huge new pipeline to carry oil from the tar sands of Alberta? You might have to ask yourself: do we have a bigger problem than four-dollar-a-gallon gasoline?
Better to join with the US House of Representatives, which earlier this spring voted 240-184 to defeat a resolution saying simply "climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for public health and welfare." Propose your own physics; ignore physics altogether. Just don't start asking yourself if last year's failed grain harvest from the Russian heatwave, and Queensland's failed grain harvest from its record flood, and France and Germany's current drought-related crop failures, and the death of the winter wheat crop in Texas, and the inability of Midwestern farmers to get corn planted in their sodden fields might somehow be related. Surely the record food prices are just freak outliers, not signs of anything systemic.
It's very important to stay completely calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies. If worst ever did come to worst, it's reassuring to remember what the US Chamber of Commerce told the EPA in a recent filing: there's no need to worry because "populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations." I'm pretty sure that's what they're telling themselves in Joplin today.
Bill McKibben is founder of the global climate campaign 350.org, and Schumann Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College.